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Weekly Market Outlook on Major Currency Pairs
August 20 - 25


The outlook is now neutral due to a lack of directional movement since early August.
Important quote: “USD/CHF’s rejection by the mid-June and current August highs at .9770/72 has practically taken it back towards its current August low at .9583 before recovering from this area once more. Together with the current August low at .9583 and the June trough at .9553 we expect this area to hold. As long as this is the case on a daily chart closing basis, the .9770/72 zone could be revisited. Slightly higher up significant resistance can be seen between the March low and late May high at .9808/14”.
“Only currently unexpected failure at the .9553 June low would imply a return visit to the .9444/39 July low and May 2016 low”.
“In order to reignite medium term upside interest we suspect that the currency pair will need to close above the .9814 end of March low and overcome the 55 week ma at .9883”.
Key Levels: R1- 0.9667, R2- 0.9674, R3- 0.9686. S1- 0.9648, S2- 0.9636, S3- 0.9629

The pair tested the accumulation territory at 1.2850 but did not breach it. The outlook on the pair is looking bearish this week.
 Important quote: “Negative outlook is supported by bearish setup of daily studies, with bear-cross of 10/55SMA’s forming today and offering additional pressure. Sustained break below 1.2850 would open another key support at 1.2811 (12 July trough) and risk fresh bearish extension. Broken 100SMA (1.2872) marks initial resistance, ahead of daily cloud top (1.2908) and last week’s congestion, reinforced by 55SMA at 1.2928, which is expected to limit extended upticks. Res: 1.2872; 1.2908; 1.2928; 1.2970 Sup: 1.2850; 1.2811; 1.2749; 1.2700,”
Key Levels: R1- 1.2886, R2- 1.2900, R3- 1.2916. S1- 1.2856, S2- 1.2840, S3- 1.2826


The pair started this week in bad shape and now remains better offered near the mid-point of 1.17 handle. During the last two weeks, the pair has traded between the resistant line at 1.1850 and the support line at 1.1650. If the pair moves above 1.1850, the current bias will be strengthened, and if the support line at 1.1650 is breached, we should expect a bearish outlook.
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted “The downtrend line off the recent high comes in a little below $1.18 at the start of the new week.  The low for the move is near $1.1660 and was seen after the record of the ECB meeting expressed concern about the "possible" euro "overshoot" in the "future." However, the euro did not close below $1.1680, the 38.2% retracement of the leg up in the euro that began in early July.”
Key Levels: R1- 1.17663, R2- 1.1770, R3- 1.1776. S1- 1.1750, S2- 1.1744, S3- 1.1737

USDJPY Price climbed up by 160pips almost touched the supply level at 111.00 on August 14 to 16. Not for long, it dropped down 220pips and closed above 109.00 on Friday. This week the pair ran through some fresh offers ahead of mid- 109.00s and turned lower for the fourth time. There is no major market moving economic releases at the start of this week, so the pair will have to rely on the broader market risk sentiment. Traders look forward to the Fed’s annual central bank symposium in Jackson Hole for more insight on the Pairs direction.
Key Levels: R1- 109.44, r2- 109.54, R3- 109.65. S1- 109.23, S2- 109.13, S2- 109.03
August 27 - September 1


The pair keeps its march north unabated on Monday, now looking to consolidate the recent breakout of the 1.1900 handle following the speech by President Draghi at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.

Further weakness around the greenback continues to bolster the upside momentum surrounding spot, which is now seems to have shifted its focus to the critical 1.2000 handle. The US Dollar Index, on the other hand, is navigating the area of fresh YTD lows near 92.30.

The outlook is bullish in the long term. The resistance line at 1.2000 will try to impede any bullish movement as the outlook for this pair is bearish this week

Key Levels: R1- 1.1956, R2- 1.1968, R3- 1.1975. S1- 1.1936, S2- 1.1929, S3- 1.1917.


Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, believes the pair could re-test the 0.9444/39 band. The view is bearish in the long term. “As long as the .9583/40 area holds on a daily chart closing basis, the current August highs at .9770/72 could be revisited. Slightly higher up significant resistance can be seen between the March low and late May high at .9808/14”.

“Only failure at the .9553 June low would imply a return visit to the .9444/39 July low and May 2016 low”. So further decline is in view, however, a sharp drop in the EURUSD will cause a significant rally.

Key Levels: R1- 0.9563, R2- 0.9570, R3- 0.9580. S1- 0.9546, S2- 0.9536, S3- 0.9529


There has been about 450pip loss for the GBPUSD, which produced a Bearish confirmation pattern. The pair will remain bearish as the GBP bulls remain cautious and refrain from extending their control, with looming Brexit concerns. It will be an opportunity to sell unless there is an unexpected event when the EU officials meet for the third round of Brexit negotiations. There is possibility of more rallies, but GBP pairs will be mostly bearish in September

Key Levels: R1- 1.2920, R2- 1.2937, R3- 1.2947. S1- 1.2892, S2- 1.2883, S3- 1.2865

Key quote: “Albeit USD/JPY fell a tad on Yellen’s speech, we note that Bank of Japan’s Kuroda also took the opportunity in Wyoming to stress devotion to accommodative policy and emphasized that the BoJ is watching policy moves elsewhere but that policy must be right for Japanese conditions”.

Last week was an equilibrium phase, so while the overall outlook is bearish, the weakness in USD prevented a meaningful rally. Further decline is anticipated this week with the next targets being the demand levels at 109.00, 108.50 and 108.00. Rallies should either be ignored or approached with caution.

Key Levels: R1- 109.47, R2- 109.57, R3- 109.72. S1- 109.22, S2- 109.07, S3- 108.97
September 3rd - 8th

At the start of last week, price went up and tested the resistance line at 1.2050, then a bearish correction pulled it down to about 200pips below. This week, the pairs outlook is bullish in the long term and bearish in the short term. It will not be easy for the pair to cross the resistant line at 1.2050, rather there are potential targets of 1.1850 and 1.1800 support lines. Looking ahead, market participants are very cautious as the key ECB meeting on Thursday approaches. On the technical side, a break above 1.1904 would pave way to 1.1981 and 1.2069.

Key Levels: R1- 1.1889, R2- 1.1895, R3- 1.1902, S1- 1.1875, S2- 1.1868, S3- 1.1861.

The pair has failed to move past the support level at 0.9450 and resistant level at 0.9650 for about 5 weeks now. This week is probably going to be an exception, as price could break the resistant level at 0.9750 or the support level at 0.9450. The outlook for the USDCHF remains neutral.

Key Levels: R1- 0.9622, R2- 0.9632, R3- 0.9648. S1 0.9595, S2- 0.9579, S3- 0.9568

The GBPUSD remains bearish on the long term and is expected to test the accumulation territories at 1.2900 and 1.2800. Market participants now look toward the release of construction PMI from the UK for some trading impetus during the European session on Monday. The U.S market will remain closed in observance of Labor Day.

Key Levels: R1- 1.2960, R2- 1.2976, R3- 1.2987. S1- 1.2954, S2- 1.2943, S3- 1.2937

The pair was seen moving up and down its demand and supply level last week. The demand level at 108.50 was tested before a reversal that took the price back to supply level at 110.50. The pair closed on Friday last week above the demand level at 110.00. This week, the pair is expected to be bearish. Movement below the demand level at 109.00 will trigger the current bias. Any recovery attempts might continue to trigger some fresh supplies near the 110.00 handle. One of the key factors weighing on the USDJPY is the escalated geopolitical tensions in North Korea, but it has made some gains because of the U.S treasury Yield bonds.

Key Levels: R1- 109.99, R2- 110.14, R3- 110.37. S1- 109.60, S2- 109.37, S3- 109.22.
Market Outlook - September 10 - 15.


Last week Friday, investors retreated from the dollar in favor of other less important currencies in fear of another missile testing by North Korea. This could lead to more issues with the United States, a bad sign for the dollar. Price climbed about 200 pips last week, moving briefly above the resistance line at 1.2050 but closed below it on Friday. The consensus in the market is that the euro is on track for more gains after European Central Bank President [ECB] Mario Draghi made it clear that it is not a question of if but a question of when they would start tapering asset purchases.
The EURUSD is likely to gain another 200pips this week with pauses and corrections along the way.

Key Levels: R1- 1.2026, R2- 1.2034, R3- 1.2041. S1- 1.2010, S2- 1.2003, S3- 1.1995


The environment is quite choppy so it would be better to wait until it breaks and stays above the supply zone at 142.60, which it is now exploring. The most probable direction this week is upward. No North Korea action over the weekend has offered some relief, although it could be short lived as North Korea warned of a punitive action if US pursues oil sanctions. Thus, things could easily heat up again. So, the pair looks bearish on the long term and neutral on the short term.

Key Levels:  R1- 143.04, R2- 143.31, R3- 143.56. S1- 142.51, S2- 142.27, S3- 141.99.

At the start of this week, the pair has recovered all its losses on Friday and has caught some fresh bids. The pair’s movement above the 0.95 psychological marks was as a result of new demands in the greenback. The Swiss Franc lost its strength as there was no news or new development in the North Korea Crisis over the weekend. A follow through buying interest has the potential to continue lifting the pair towards 0.9525-30 resistance area en-route 0.9555-60 horizontal resistance.

Key Levels: R1- 0.9484, R2- 0.9489, R3- 0.9499. S1- 0.9468, S2- 0.9458, S3- 0.9453


The Pair’s outlook is bullish after rallying more than 280 pips last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.3200, and closing slightly below it. Late last week, the pair went dip to the 1.3168 level, but it is now gaining some traction and looking to reclaim the 1.3200 handle during early European session. Investors are cautious this week, waiting for the macro releases from the U.S. and UK, along with a very important BoE monetary policy decision. The GBPUSD is likely to reach the distribution territories of 1.3250, 1.3300 and 1.3350 is this week.

Key Levels: R1- 1.3200, R2- 3208, R3- 1.3217. S1- 1.3182, S2- 1.3174, S3- 1.3165.


The pair lost 210 pips last week and tested the demand level at 107.50 before closing above it. Still, with eased concerns regarding the political conflict in North Korea, safe haven currencies were a little bit weighed down. Notwithstanding, the outlook for the JPY pairs remains bullish this week. Fxstreet analysis suggests that “Immediate support is pegged near 108.25-20 zone, below which the pair could drift back to the 108.00 handle en-route 107.70 horizontal support. On the flip side, a strong follow through buying interest beyond the 108.50-60 region now seems to pave way for continuation of the pair's recovery move towards the 109.00 handle ahead of 109.25 level”

Key Levels: R1- 108.45, R2- 108.67, R3- 108.83. S1- 108.07, S2- 107.91, S3- 107.70

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