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Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS
#31
USD/JPY: YEN MET 3 INDIANS
10:28 24.08.2017

Recommendation:

BUY 109.8

SL 109.25

TP1 110.8 TP2 112

On the daily chart, another attempt of bulls to return inside the triangle was unsuccessful. In order to have another chance, buyers need to keep the pair inside the medium-term channel between 108.50 and 114.50. A successful test of its lower border will open the way down to 161.8% target of the AB=CD pattern.

[Image: 1503559494-3297c54597baddc0779dab87f7356...00_q90.png]

On USD/JPY there's consolidation within the inverted “Spike and ledge” pattern on the basis of 1-2-3. Together with “Three Indians” it’s a serious reversal pattern.

[Image: 1503559514-1f50b4d918123f905c31c70a9dfda...00_q90.png]
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#32
USD/CHF DOESN’T WANT TO PART WITH WEDGE
10:41 24.08.2017

Recommendations:
SELL 0.9605
SL 0.966
TP1 0.9505 TP2 09475
BUY 0.975
SL 0.9695
TP 0.989

On the daily chart, USD/CHF keeps consolidation near an important level of 0.9650 (23.6% of the last long-term descending wave). If bears manage to lead the pair down below the diagonal support (lower border of the uptrend channel), the odds of reaching 88.6% target of Gartley pattern will increase.

[Image: 1503560416-a5903a7f3cf43bc4f33886526fd84...00_q90.png]

On H1, USD/CHF is consolidating within a “Widening wedge”. A break of support levels at 0.9605 and 0.9585 won’t lead the pair south. On the other hand, successful test of resistance at 0.9750 and 0.9765 will open the way for further advance.

[Image: 1503560433-351a015a31e5fdb2fee97b43bc66a...00_q90.png]
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#33
EUR/USD: DEVELOPING ZIGZAG
11:07 24.08.2017

[Image: 1503561966-6b984de2d792382b4cdd8f7a280b7...00_q90.png]

There's developing wave [iv], which is likely going to take the form of a zigzag. The main target is 7/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave [v] of 3.

[Image: 1503561965-2cb9e2c4815374e2e6148d45bbc91...00_q90.png]

There are a bearish impulse in wave i and a zigzag in wave ii. So, there's an opportunity to have wave iii of © soon. In this case, we should keep in mind 3/8 MM Level as the next bearish target.
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#34
USD/JPY: "HAMMER" AND "BELT HOLD"
12:32 24.08.2017

[Image: 1503567088-8ef39c58195e9efc53e48ba4da9c0...00_q90.png]

There's a developing consolidation. The 34 & 55 Moving Averages are acting as resistance. In this case, the market is likely going to test the upper "Window" once again. If a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bears will probably try to reach the lower "Window".

[Image: 1503567087-cc6da9f7721257ad4c81bba6d4f3c...00_q90.png]

We've got bullish patterns such a "Hammer" and a "Belt Hold" at the local low, which both have been confirmed by the last "Three Methods". So, bulls are likely going to push the price even higher during the day.
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#35
EUR/USD: 34 MA GOING TO ACT AS SUPPORT
13:02 24.08.2017

[Image: 1503567087-60249e740031ac6ace3a702058cfd...00_q90.png]

There's a "Shooting Star", but confirmation of this pattern is quite weak. So, the 34 Moving Average is likely going to act as support. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement towards the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for another decline.

[Image: 1503567089-e6a847b653f9cb5426474803fc166...00_q90.png]

We've got a "Tweezers" and a "High Wave", which both have been confirmed by the two "Three Methods" patterns in a row. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support, where we could have a bullish pattern. If so, the last high will be probably tested once again.
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#36
NFP: A HOT DAY FOR THE US DOLLAR
11:38 01.09.2017

It’s the first Friday of September that means that the United States will release labor market data for August at 15:30 MT time. This week has already been very volatile for EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Will the news release change anything?

The risks
Yes, there are no doubts that this release will have a big impact on the market as it’s the last one before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.

ADP employment report, which is the same as NFP, except it’s prepared not by the authorities, but by a private entity, showed that 237K jobs were created in America last month compared to 185K expected. After this publication, many market players started thinking that NFP will come out strong as well. Remember though that ADP and NFP don’t always correlate.

History shows that August payrolls tend to disappoint the market. The reasons for such consistent pattern are not quite clear. It may have something to do with seasonal factors: American teachers quit jobs and are re-employed when the new school year starts. August is also a holiday season. Many people who do contract work don't take new assignments. There are also some tricky reasons to believe that wage growth (average hourly earnings) will be lower as well (this deals with the fact how the indicator is counted).

The Fed is closely watching the US economic figures as traders try to predict further actions of the US central bank. The devastating hurricane that ran over Texas diminishes the odds of the Fed’s rate hike this year (although the hurricane won’t affect this month’s NFP). A disappointment in labor data will make the US currency suffer a lot. At the same time, USD bulls will need a reading above the consensus forecast to continue the greenback’s recovery.

The forecasts
Here are the forecasts of some well-known banks.

[Image: 1504254937-c4aa45cf9797a892ee3799c565805...00_q90.png]

The impact
>200K – very USD-positive
180K-200K – mildly positive for the USD
150K-180K – mildly negative for the USD
<150 – very USD-negative
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#37
NFP: A HOT DAY FOR THE US DOLLAR
11:38 01.09.2017

It’s the first Friday of September that means that the United States will release labor market data for August at 15:30 MT time. This week has already been very volatile for EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Will the news release change anything?

The risks
Yes, there are no doubts that this release will have a big impact on the market as it’s the last one before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.

ADP employment report, which is the same as NFP, except it’s prepared not by the authorities, but by a private entity, showed that 237K jobs were created in America last month compared to 185K expected. After this publication, many market players started thinking that NFP will come out strong as well. Remember though that ADP and NFP don’t always correlate.

History shows that August payrolls tend to disappoint the market. The reasons for such consistent pattern are not quite clear. It may have something to do with seasonal factors: American teachers quit jobs and are re-employed when the new school year starts. August is also a holiday season. Many people who do contract work don't take new assignments. There are also some tricky reasons to believe that wage growth (average hourly earnings) will be lower as well (this deals with the fact how the indicator is counted).

The Fed is closely watching the US economic figures as traders try to predict further actions of the US central bank. The devastating hurricane that ran over Texas diminishes the odds of the Fed’s rate hike this year (although the hurricane won’t affect this month’s NFP). A disappointment in labor data will make the US currency suffer a lot. At the same time, USD bulls will need a reading above the consensus forecast to continue the greenback’s recovery.

The forecasts
Here are the forecasts of some well-known banks.

[Image: 1504254937-c4aa45cf9797a892ee3799c565805...00_q90.png]

The impact
>200K – very USD-positive
180K-200K – mildly positive for the USD
150K-180K – mildly negative for the USD
<150 – very USD-negative
Reply
#38
GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
17:38 01.09.2017

In line with our expectations, GBP/USD tried to recover but remained limited by the key psychological level of 1.3000 on the upside. The pair’s recovery was caused primarily by the weakness of the US dollar and not by the strength of British pound.

The sterling remains under the negative impact of uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the European Union. The third round of Brexit negotiations started on Monday, but the EU’s chief negotiator said that the progress of the talks was slow.

One of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members Saunders, who has recently voted for a rate hike, warned that unless the regulator didn’t start raising rates soon, it will have to increase rates at a faster pace in future potentially hurting economic growth. However, the prevailing opinion is still that the BoE will keep rates low until the situation with Brexit becomes clearer.

The UK manufacturing PMI hit a 4-month high in August. In the coming days, the nation will release construction and services PMIs. On addition, the BoE Governor Mark Carney will speak at the House of Commons in line with Inflation Report hearings on Tuesday. His comments may be market movers. At the end of the week, on Friday, Britain will release manufacturing production figures.

Technically GBP/USD rebounded from support line connecting April, June and September lows. This line is currently providing support around 1.2800. On H4 we see something like an inverted Head & Shoulders. A break above 1.3000 will allow the pound to strengthen to 1.3100 and 1.3160. Below 1.2800 the pound will get vulnerable for a decline to 1.2750 and 1.2660 (200-day MA)
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#39
EUR/USD: "THORN" PATTERN
10:32 15.09.2017

[Image: 1505471505-f8d11ca7f886c47cf16b08591abdc..._q90v3.png]

The 89 Moving Average has acted as support, so we've got a "Thorn" pattern on this line. Therefore, the price is consolidating between the 34 & 55 Moving Averages. So, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the next resistance at 1.1975 - 1.2003. If a pullback from this area happens, we could have a decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.1909 - 1.1892.

[Image: 1505471505-8e9085aa83c3cc169c4a3fbf06d92..._q90v3.png]

Bears faced with support at 1.1850, so there's a "Thorn" pattern, which pushed the price to resistance at 1.1925. In this case, the market is likely going to reach another resistance at 1.1975 - 1.2003 during the day. However, if we have a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to catch the closest support at 1.1907 - 1.1892.
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#40
EUR/USD: "V-BOTTOM" PATTERN
09:00 18.09.2017

[Image: 1505725149-c400af312fb7e9f7da5df9eb2aee8..._q90v3.png]

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.1994, so we've got a "V-Bottom" pattern, which pushed the price to the 34 Moving Average. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support area at 1.1909 - 1.1892. If we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to test the closest resistance at 1.2029 - 1.2042.

[Image: 1505725149-fa6c5522af998cf59a90ba9ede14a..._q90v3.png]

The price is consolidating under resistance at 1.1949. So, the pair is likely going to reach the next support at 1.1907 - 1.1892 in the short term. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area arrives little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.1975 - 1.2003.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-u...ttern-3786
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